The most likely country to exit the P5, its territory may face potential "fragmentation" at any time.

The current permanent members of the United Nations consist of five countries, and these nations were selected due to their victorious status in World War II.

As the victors of World War II, these five member states once held unmatched power.

However, over time, the international situation and the status of the five major powers began to change.

These changes stem from the strategic development directions and specific outcomes in various fields for each country, and this trend is becoming increasingly apparent.

First, although Russia still has great national strength, its economy and political system have been significantly impacted in recent years due to the conflict with Ukraine.

France, on the other hand, has seen some domestic unrest due to its long-standing lenient immigration policies.

Fortunately, France's economy and society remain relatively stable.

The United States, as the world's most powerful nation, continues to maintain its leading position in the economic, political, and military fields, so its status as a permanent member of the UN remains secure.

China, although it suffered the most devastation during World War II, has gradually risen to become a global power thanks to its resilient national spirit and relentless development.

As for the United Kingdom, although it was once a leader among the five permanent members, it now seems to face numerous challenges on its path of development.

The United Kingdom is composed of several regions united as one nation, and due to the autonomy and independence demands of these regions, the country faces a potential crisis of fragmentation.

Thus, the UK's position as one of the permanent members of the Security Council has become increasingly fragile, and some other countries have begun eyeing this seat.

Currently, two major powers are coveting the UK's position as a permanent member and hope to replace it one day.

First, the UK's glory can be traced back to the 1760s, when it pioneered the Industrial Revolution, completing its industrialization in less than 80 years.

As the first country in the world to industrialize, the United Kingdom once became the leading global power.

Amidst its strong economic development, the UK embarked on a path of global colonial expansion, starting with the annexation of Ireland and later expanding into Asia, with China becoming one of its victims.

In 1840, the UK launched the First Opium War under the pretext of the destruction of opium, forcing China to cede territory and pay reparations.

A few years later, the Anglo-French allied forces launched the Second Opium War, burning down the Yuanmingyuan (Old Summer Palace) in China, which again ended with China ceding more territory and paying reparations.

In addition to its aggression toward China, the UK also colonized countries like India, Burma, Iran, and Egypt, becoming the largest colonial empire in the world at the time.

After World War II, the UK, as one of the victors, became one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

However, with the outbreak of independence movements in its colonies, the UK's colonial dominance gradually collapsed.

Starting in 1945, the UK's colonies, such as India, Burma, and Canada, began to declare independence one after another. With the loss of its colonies, the UK's global influence diminished considerably, and it started to rely on the United States.

Joining the European Community was originally a step for the UK to seek new development paths through alliances, but over the years, the UK has not gained much from it.

In recent years, the UK's development has become increasingly stagnant, and after Brexit in 2020, its economic situation has rapidly deteriorated.

By mid-2024, Birmingham, the UK's second-largest city, had effectively declared bankruptcy, and many other cities were facing similar financial crises.

Local governments across the UK, especially in England, Scotland, and Wales, are under immense financial pressure, and to cope with these issues, the UK government has had to make significant cuts to public services.

At the same time, the consequences of poor governance by the UK government are also reflected in social issues, especially concerning immigration.

The UK's lenient immigration policies have led to a deterioration in social security, with immigration becoming a focal point of social conflict.

As the UK weakens, its position as one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council has been increasingly shaken.

Two countries are currently hoping to replace the UK as new permanent members.

The first country is India.

Since 2004, India has applied six times to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Although each attempt has failed for various reasons, India remains confident.

India's confidence stems from its rapid economic development in recent years and its population dividend. As the world's sixth-largest economy, India has long set its sights on becoming a permanent member.

The second country is Germany.

As the leader of Europe's economy, Germany has become a major global economic power thanks to its strong industrial base and robust financial system.

Germany's manufacturing technology and education system have also given it a significant position on the international stage.

In many ways, Germany has already surpassed the UK, making it more qualified than India to replace the UK as a permanent member of the Security Council.

Changes in the membership of the permanent members of the UN Security Council may not be far off.

With the rise of some countries and the decline of the UK, the structure of the five permanent members may soon face new adjustments.