After Ukraine, who is the next target of Russia's special military operation? Kazakhstan has the opportunity.

In 2014, Russia seized Crimea, and they said that this place used to be their own.

It was in 1954 when Khrushchev got drunk and gave this place to Ukraine, so they recovered the old land without any problem.

In 2022, Russia seized the four provinces of eastern Ukraine, where they said there were a large number of Russian compatriots and people who admired Russian culture.

They are being suppressed by the Ukrainian authorities, so Russia has a responsibility to protect the people here, and therefore launched this special military operation.

There are several main conditions for this special military operation targeting Ukraine.

Firstly, Ukraine and Russia have had territorial disputes in history.

Secondly, Ukraine is adjacent to Russia.

Thirdly, Ukraine is much weaker than Russia.

Fourthly, Ukraine has many Russians.

After meeting these four conditions, Russia can only launch a special military operation if it wants to.

So the question is, who could possibly become the next target in Russia's plan?

This may be the most concerning thing for the neighboring countries around us. After all, many of Russia's neighboring countries meet these conditions.

Poland and the Baltic States can be basically ruled out

Poland and the Baltic States are both neighboring countries of Russia, and during the Tsarist era, some of Poland's territory and all of the Baltic States' territory were owned by Russia.

In addition, there are also some Russians within these countries to some extent. The most crucial point is that compared to Russia, these countries are too weak to be beaten.

So the question is, will they be the lucky ones for Russia's next special military operation? It is estimated to be impossible. Why?

Because they are all NATO member countries. Poland joined NATO in 1999, and the Baltic States joined NATO in 2004. This organization is a collective defense organization, and if you move one of the countries, it is equivalent to moving all members of NATO.

So if Russia doesn't want to confront NATO head-on, it won't easily touch these countries. This is also one of the reasons why the Baltic States, although small in size, have a significant voice.

In addition, there is also Finland. Although there are not many Russians in Finland, Finland has a long border with Russia, which is also a concern for Russia. They are afraid of the enemy coming in from Finland.

Moreover, in history, Finland caused the Soviet Union to lose face during the Winter War, so if Russia could hold Finland down and beat it up, it would be considered a relief for its senior colleagues.

However, Finland also joined NATO in 2023, leaving Russia with few easy targets in the west. You can't have your own little brother, Bai Ross, cut open, can you?

Georgia, why don't you beat it up again

Georgia used to be a part of Tsarist Russia, but after its downfall in 1917, they also followed the trend and became part of the Soviet Union. Stalin, the former leader of the Soviet Union, came from Georgia.

But Georgia has never been very obedient to Soviet rule, so in April 1991, before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Georgia was the first to separate and take action alone.

It's easy to join the company, do you want to be separated and work alone? That's not an easy thing to do. The cost paid by Georgia for this is a bit high.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia are still under Russian control, and there is basically no room for Georgia to speak up.

For this reason, Georgia and Russia fought a Russo Georgian war in 2008, which ended in a disastrous defeat for Georgia. Russia has announced the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and in order to express dissatisfaction, Georgia has announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia.

Unlike the four states of eastern Ukraine and Crimea, Russia did not directly consume Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This can also be considered as another excuse for future special military operations.

Relatively speaking, Georgia is much smaller in size than Ukraine, not only with a small population of only over 3.7 million, but also with a small territory and no strategic depth. If we really want to fight, it is basically not a problem for Russia to annihilate Georgia.

So, if things don't go well in the Russo Ukrainian war, it's not impossible for Russia to come back and take Georgia, the little guy, to practice their skills. After all, for a country that enjoys fighting, a victory is too important.

Azerbaijan, there's no reason to take action

In fact, Azerbaijan's relationship with Russia has not been bad in history, because the Baku oil field in Azerbaijan is enough for the local people to live well, and there is no need for Russian subsidies at all. Therefore, during the Soviet era, there was not much conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia.

Moreover, although Azerbaijan has ethnic Russians and borders Russia, they do not have any territorial disputes with Russia.

This place was snatched from Iran by Tsarist Russia in the early 19th century, and has since been associated with Tsarist Russia for a long time. They didn't continue to follow the Soviet Union until the fall of Tsarist Russia.

Since there is no territorial dispute, Russia cannot find a reason to deal with Azerbaijan. After all, war is not a joke, and there is no suitable reason.

No matter how much they like to fight, they cannot easily take action.

After Armenia and Azerbaijan had a big fight over the Nakar region, Russia sided with Armenia, which led to Azerbaijan falling out with Russia for a while, but not to the point of launching a war.

Moreover, during the Russo Ukrainian War, Azerbaijan took action against Armenia, but Russia did not help Armenia, which resulted in Azerbaijan regaining control of the Nakar region, making it even less likely for the two sides to become rivals.

Kazakhstan has the highest probability of getting beaten up

Why do we say Kazakhstan has the highest probability? We can look at this issue from several perspectives. Currently, Kazakhstan is definitely the target that Russia wants to launch a special military operation, apart from Ukraine.

Firstly, Kazakhstan meets all conditions

Kazakhstan has a large territory of over 2.7 million square kilometers, but its population is only around 20 million. And out of these 20 million people, 4 million are actually Russians.

This population structure poses a huge threat to Kazakhstan. In fact, this is already the result of Kazakhstan's efforts.

During the Soviet era, in order to prevent Kazakhstan from going solo in the future, the Soviet Union used sand to cut a piece of land from Russia and gave it to Kazakhstan. At the same time, a large number of Russian people on the land became part of Kazakhstan.

At this time in Kazakhstan, the Russian and Kazakhs were actually at a level of five to five. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan suppressed its own Russian people while allowing Kazakhs from all over the world to return, which allowed Kazakhs to occupy a dominant position.

So, Russia is stealing a chicken but not eating rice. They originally planned to eat the whole of Kazakhstan, but ended up losing a piece of meat themselves. It can be seen that there is a certain territorial dispute between Russia and Kazakhstan.

Secondly, Kazakhstan openly pro Western and sanctioning Russia

Kazakhstan is already different from when it followed Russia.

When it was separated and started working alone, Kazakhstan had a large number of Russian people and their own hematopoietic ability was not strong, so they were not willing to work alone. Isn't it pleasant to receive subsidies from Russia?

At that time, Russia had no intention of taking Kazakhstan with them. In their view, these Stans in Central Asia knew how to rely on their own subsidies.

Instead of taking them with them, it was better to kick them out.

Moreover, Kazakhstan is located inland, and apart from relying on Russia, Russians cannot imagine who else they can rely on. So even if Kazakhstan is not allowed to follow him, this place can still be considered Russia's backyard and private land.

As a result, Kazakhstan has created its own territory, relying on the Caspian Sea! We can transport energy from here to Europe to sell money, and also cooperate with major countries in the East and the East to earn money.

So, Kazakhstan is not solely reliant on Russia to survive, just like several other Stans. That's not all, Kazakhstan's statement in the Russo Ukrainian War is more likely to make Russia angry.

Because Kazakhstan not only does not turn towards Russia, but also follows the West in announcing sanctions against Russia. Good guy, Kazakhstan is located in the central southern part of Russia, and if there are any mistakes here, Russia is very likely to be cut off by the waist.

So, after the end of the Russo Ukrainian War, if Russia still has the energy to launch another special military operation, Kazakhstan will be an extremely dangerous "lucky one".

Thirdly, Kazakhstan is on the road to de Russification and will never return

We have previously introduced this matter, and since Kazakhstan does not want to continue serving as a vassal and private territory of Russia, it must establish its own brand.

Therefore, de Russification becomes very important. In recent years, Kazakhstan has not only gradually abandoned Russian, Russian language, and Russian culture, but also continuously compressed the living space and promotion channels of the Russian people.

Can this be a reason for Russia to launch a special military operation against Kazakhstan! After all, they have bullied their own compatriots, can we not take action?

But currently, the relationship between Kazakhstan and major Eastern powers is very good, and the two sides have also had close ties in history. So if you want to move Kazakhstan, you still need to ask if the Eastern powers will nod.

The remaining neighboring countries are unlikely to become military targets for Russia

Firstly, it is our great Eastern powers. They are not rivals to the current Eastern powers in terms of both economy and military.

Even if the Eastern powers have Russians, border with Russia, and have territorial disputes with Russia in history, as long as they are stronger than Russia, they dare not easily take action. This is the importance of self-reliance and self-improvement.

Next is Outer Mongolia, which was a Sino Russian buffer zone that was established during the Stalin era and was actually part of China's territory.

Its purpose was to protect Russia's Siberian railway from the threat of southern forces. Before 1991, there was little difference between Outer Mongolia and Soviet colonies. Even after 1991, the country did not pose any threat to Russia.

It can be seen that Kazakhstan is currently the most dangerous country, and Georgia cannot be without crisis awareness. Of course, all of this is based on the premise that Russia can properly handle the Russo Ukrainian conflict.